
by John M. Vittone
“Bronze clashing against bronze is a common sound as the Humans, created by the force of Gravity, fight the lizard-like Sahalians, created by the force of Light, as they have done since before chisel was first put to stone. The mighty Human city of Polemos currently hold the Sahalians at bay. Distanced from the war, the Humans of the city Sofia have the luxury to pursue knowledge; The tree of their inquiry has born great fruit; the discovery of magic. While this new field is being explored, its limits entirely unknown. The wisest of the Sofians, Aristocles, created a miracle child using magical methods known only to him. This miracle, named Philena, is endowed with many supernatural abilities – chief among them being an impeccable foresight. With Philena leading the armies of Polemos and wielding magic, how could Humanity possibly lose?”
No streak history
One state-enhanced oracle order, filtered by each list. Observed Royal Road ranks remain separate ground truth.
Rank updated 2 Oct 2026, 12:48 UTC
Entry forecast updated 2 Oct 2026, 12:48 UTC
Ranking model: rs-public-oracle-state-v1
Forecast model: rs-model-entry-v1
Chart history contains only this ranking model's runs; legacy points are not spliced in.
Coupled 14-day outlook
rs-joint-entry-copula-v1
Any eligible RS entry
17%
Two or more lists
2%
Likely threshold order: Tragedy → Romance → Fantasy → Main.
Leading bundle: Tragedy (15%).
Estimated from one fitted shared story path; category probabilities are not multiplied as if lists were independent.
Separate entry forecast; this probability does not enter the ranking score.
Overall Rising Stars Shadow RS rank
#11395 of 12,224 · 11345 below RS #50
By genre
beats 18% of similar stories
beats 61% of similar stories
beats 14% of similar stories
Both levers trail the field
Traffic and conversion are both below comparable stories. Cadence is the first lever — stories posting near-daily reached 25 followers 17% of the time; stories posting every few days almost never did. Get the flow going, then re-check conversion.
Benchmarks: 8,060 active Royal Road stories, percentiles within the 20–49 chapters band, cohort of 2026-07-02. Conversion is measured as followers gained per 1,000 views over the recent window.