by Thomas Snaddon
First appeared on Substack. Author retains full rights. Avoidance and Chance A quiet, emotional tale about distance, warnings carried too long, and the fragile threads that pull lives together. A man walking the same streets every morning, keeping his head down. A teenager sensing a presence she can’t explain. Avoidance. Chance. And the moment where everything shifts.
No streak history
One state-enhanced oracle order, filtered by each list. Observed Royal Road ranks remain separate ground truth.
Rank updated 2 Oct 2026, 02:19 UTC
Entry forecast updated 2 Oct 2026, 02:19 UTC
Ranking model: rs-public-oracle-state-v1
Forecast model: rs-model-entry-v1
Chart history contains only this ranking model's runs; legacy points are not spliced in.
Coupled 14-day outlook
rs-joint-entry-copula-v1
Any eligible RS entry
28%
Two or more lists
23%
Likely threshold order: Short Story → Contemporary → Drama → Psychological → Main.
Leading bundle: Contemporary + Drama + Psychological + Short Story (14%).
Estimated from one fitted shared story path; category probabilities are not multiplied as if lists were independent.
Separate entry forecast; this probability does not enter the ranking score.
Overall Rising Stars Shadow RS rank
#110 of 12,428 · 60 below RS #50
By genre
Collecting data. Under 100 lifetime views — conversion rates this early are noise, not signal.
