by lemonleapoard
Here at Arcane Knowledge we believe that everyone should have free access to information on the arcane. Come here for weekly episodes where we discuss various topics about the arcane, and help make sure everybody is educated as they should be. It is our goal to help the general public understand more about the world we live in in hope it will improve your life for the better.
No streak history
One state-enhanced oracle order, filtered by each list. Observed Royal Road ranks remain separate ground truth.
Rank updated 4 Oct 2026, 14:48 UTC
Entry forecast updated 4 Oct 2026, 14:48 UTC
Ranking model: rs-public-oracle-state-v1
Forecast model: rs-model-entry-v1
Chart history contains only this ranking model's runs; legacy points are not spliced in.
Coupled 14-day outlook
rs-joint-entry-copula-v1
Any eligible RS entry
3%
Two or more lists
0%
Likely threshold order: Fantasy → Main.
Leading bundle: Fantasy (3%).
Estimated from one fitted shared story path; category probabilities are not multiplied as if lists were independent.
Separate entry forecast; this probability does not enter the ranking score.
Overall Rising Stars Shadow RS rank
#873 of 12,366 · 823 below RS #50
By genre
beats 21% of similar stories
not enough data yet
beats 17% of similar stories
Both levers trail the field
Traffic and conversion are both below comparable stories. Cadence is the first lever — stories posting near-daily reached 25 followers 17% of the time; stories posting every few days almost never did. Get the flow going, then re-check conversion.
Benchmarks: 8,060 active Royal Road stories, percentiles within the 5–9 chapters band, cohort of 2026-07-02. Conversion is measured as followers gained per 1,000 views lifetime.
