by RaccoonWithSprinkles
Long time since his mom's passing, Nelly is finally able to live a tranquil life; he's subbing in a band with his friends, has an amazing life on the road, and is living his late twenties in the company of his best friend. That's all really good, right? Hopefully nothing ever happens that may threaten his very fragile stability.
No streak history
One state-enhanced oracle order, filtered by each list. Observed Royal Road ranks remain separate ground truth.
Rank updated 2 Oct 2026, 23:18 UTC
Entry forecast updated 2 Oct 2026, 23:18 UTC
Ranking model: rs-public-oracle-state-v1
Forecast model: rs-model-entry-v1
Chart history contains only this ranking model's runs; legacy points are not spliced in.
Coupled 14-day outlook
rs-joint-entry-copula-v1
Any eligible RS entry
12%
Two or more lists
7%
Likely threshold order: Short Story → Contemporary → Comedy → Drama → Romance → Main.
Leading bundle: Short Story (5%).
Estimated from one fitted shared story path; category probabilities are not multiplied as if lists were independent.
Separate entry forecast; this probability does not enter the ranking score.
Overall Rising Stars Shadow RS rank
#2340 of 12,431 · 2290 below RS #50
By genre
beats 25% of similar stories
not enough data yet
beats 25% of similar stories
Both levers trail the field
Traffic and conversion are both below comparable stories. Cadence is the first lever — stories posting near-daily reached 25 followers 17% of the time; stories posting every few days almost never did. Get the flow going, then re-check conversion.
Benchmarks: 8,060 active Royal Road stories, percentiles within the 10–19 chapters band, cohort of 2026-07-02. Conversion is measured as followers gained per 1,000 views over the recent window.
