by Mellingtontv
David Carter died on a Tuesday pushing his kids out of the way of a truck. He expected nothing after. What he got was a god who goes by Uncle Arby, a black dragon body, and the discovery that his kids had been reincarnated into elves in a world that wants them dead. Now the rarest dragon in a billion years has one job — keep his children alive long enough to tell them he's they're dad and they are back together. Welcome to project black dragon my first light novel!
No streak history
One state-enhanced oracle order, filtered by each list. Observed Royal Road ranks remain separate ground truth.
Rank updated 16 Oct 2026, 13:28 UTC
Entry forecast updated 16 Oct 2026, 13:28 UTC
Ranking model: rs-public-oracle-state-v1
Forecast model: rs-model-entry-v1
Chart history contains only this ranking model's runs; legacy points are not spliced in.
Coupled 14-day outlook
rs-joint-entry-copula-v1
Any eligible RS entry
2%
Two or more lists
0%
Likely threshold order: Drama → Adventure → Action → Fantasy → Main.
Leading bundle: Drama (2%).
Estimated from one fitted shared story path; category probabilities are not multiplied as if lists were independent.
Separate entry forecast; this probability does not enter the ranking score.
Overall Rising Stars Shadow RS rank
#2376 of 2,911 · 2326 below RS #50
By genre
beats 1% of similar stories
not enough data yet
beats 13% of similar stories
Both levers trail the field
Traffic and conversion are both below comparable stories. Cadence is the first lever — stories posting near-daily reached 25 followers 17% of the time; stories posting every few days almost never did. Get the flow going, then re-check conversion.
Benchmarks: 8,060 active Royal Road stories, percentiles within the 20–49 chapters band, cohort of 2026-07-02. Conversion is measured as followers gained per 1,000 views over the recent window.
