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Expected Variance

Expected Variance

by Lore Mackenzie

ApocalypseDystopiaMultiple Lead CharactersPost ApocalypticPsychological
Rising Stars:Short story #29
On Rising Stars: Short Story #29

Stranded on a distant planet locked in perpetual storm, a lone scientist endures isolation, failing systems, and the slow erosion of certainty as communication with his team grows increasingly fraught. As rockets flee a poisoned world, two women fighting to heal the planet uncover a truth that turns hope into catastrophe—just as the planet reaches zero. When a supervolcano forces the evacuation of a colony world, a woman must leave behind the only planet she’s ever loved—and the life she built there. Expected Variance is a series of stand-alone short stories exploring far away planets and desolation.  Like a little music while you read? Find the Variance playlist here on Spotify!

View on Royal RoadEvolutionSet Alert
Changes shown for: last 30d
24h7d30d90dAll
Current Rank
#29
Peak Rank
#29
Followers
24
0
Story Timeline

Started

8mo ago

10

3mo ago

20

1mo ago

Entered Short_story RS

1mo ago

#50 Short_story

1mo ago

Left Short_story RS

1mo ago

Entered Short_story RS

4w ago

#50 Short_story

4w ago

Left Short_story RS

3w ago

Entered Short_story RS

3w ago

#29 Short_story

3w ago

OverviewViews and follower statisticsEngagementProseChapters
Ranking History
Track position changes over time
24h7d30d
Favorites
11
+1
FVR
0.54%
Rating
5.00
Ratings
11
0
Reviews
N/A
0
Comments
N/A
0
RS Days
25
90d
All
Rating Breakdown
Overall5.00
Style5.00
Story5.00
Grammar5.00
Character4.83
Streak History

Current

9/6/2026

Peak #29

25d

#2

9/3/2026

Peak #50

0d

#1

9/1/2026

Peak #50

0d

Shared RS Climb

Observed Royal Road ranks are authoritative for lists where the story is active. Other eligible lists retain their Shadow RS ranks.

Overall Rising Stars Shadow RS rank

~#11565860

#11565 of 12,418 · 11515 below RS #50

Separate entry model vs observed 7d bar-66/wk
Separate forecast P(enter ≤14d)0%
Shadow rankObserved RR rank

By genre

Reader Funnel
How efficiently views become followers — benchmarked against 8,060 active stories with 10–19 chapters
Views
4.4k
0.0 follows / 1k viewslast 30d

beats 25% of similar stories

Followers
24
–

not enough data yet

Favorites
11
Traffic (last 30d)21 views/day

beats 58% of similar stories

Conversion trend
Coolingrecent 0.0/1k vs lifetime 5.4/1k

Mid-pack, room on both levers

Traffic and conversion both sit mid-field for a story this size. Growth here compounds from consistency: steady cadence feeds traffic, and a sharper hook lifts what each view is worth.

Benchmarks: 8,060 active Royal Road stories, percentiles within the 10–19 chapters band, cohort of 2026-07-02. Conversion is measured as followers gained per 1,000 views over the recent window.

Shoutouts
Author-note cross-promotion — a driver of reader traffic on Royal Road.
1 promoting thispromotes 0

Promoted by

  • The reoccurring flavor of lime